Sadly, the W.H.O. hasn’t done much to let people know why they should or shouldn’t panic. The new 1 to 6 rating scale they use focuses only on the spread of a disease, without any indication of how severe infections are. Maybe they should adapt the system to include severity as well? How about an A to X rating where “A” means almost no one will die from infection and “X” means Spanish Flu levels of mortality.

-Corbett

Second of all, before I go any further, let me say that I have not donned a surgical mask, and I am getting on a flight for Boston in under a week and will not be wearing one then either.

The panic that many people are showing seems to be a little over the top.

However, – and remember this comes from a cynic – the nay-sayers who compare this current situation to the general flu and tack it up to a mere media-driven ratings-generating craze, are too cynical for their own, and potentially millions of other’s, own good.

Consider, if you will, if the Bush administration had announced in 2003 that the Federal Emergency Management Agency was woefully unprepared for certain types of disasters, and announced their belief that if a hurricane were to hit New Orleans that there could be catastrophic damage the likes of which would not be fully recovered from for a decade or longer. No doubt, the media would have latched onto the announcement and started reporting multiple stories of small natural disasters from around the world, and NBC would have produced an epic miniseries called “Typhoon” within two months. There would be stories of people moving away from fault lines and coast lines and of islanders heading to the mainland for fear of a volcanic eruption. These would represent a ten-millionth of a single percent of the population, but they would be the stories that were covered. There would probably be an increase in reports that we should expect more powerful natural disasters in the near future as a result of climate change, too.

And most of the rest of us would roll our eyes and change the channel.

But then Katrina would hit, and while all of the over-reaction would still seem like over-reaction, there would probably be several million silent nods of the head to the administration who prepared ahead of time for a disaster. (Although, I imagine, with a proper response from the government, there would be far less to report, and so what MIGHT have happened – and, of course, did – would not fully be realized and so the credit for averting a disaster would go ungiven.)

My point is that preparation for disaster will ALWAYS seem unnecessary when the disaster is seen as unlikely or commonplace. “We get hurricanes all the time, it’s bad, but it’s not that terrible. A few people die, a few lose their homes. No big. Relax, Bush.” Or, “The flu rampages the world every year. Millions die. It must be a slow news year to be making a big deal out of this one. The worst that could happen is what happens every year.”

Here’s the problem: this virus is neither unlikely to spread, nor is it commonplace.

It is a virus, the type of which the world has not seen in 90 years. When that virus reared it’s head, 20% of the population of the world suffered from the disease, and anywhere from 50-100 million people died. Those numbers are enormous. And not just the deaths. Remember, living through something like this is not to be thought of lightly either. In some cases, survivors were disabled after their “recovery.”

Now, granted, that virus killed by cytokine storms which, so far, there is no evidence to suggest that the swine flu is capable of – but the swine flu does seem to be capable of killing those with strong immune systems – something more common strains typically do not do. But the virility and contagiousness of this thing is on par with Spanish Flu from nearly a century ago.

There is no way to stop it. There is no way to kill it, since it’s not alive. It can only be contained. But its growth is exponential. Successful containment must happen BEFORE it appears to be needed. Once the common man believes that there is a problem, it is too late. It won’t stop until it runs itself out, Spanish Flu style. And I think that we are far too naive about what global outbreak will look like.

How many cases are there worldwide? Percentage-wise, zero. Zero point zero zero zero zero …. Why on earth are we freaking out about this? Because if we don’t freak now, and that number gets a little closer to a tenth or even a hundredth of a percent, it will be too late. Containment is possible this early; it won’t be then. And that tiny percentage will grow to…what? Spanish Flu levels? Possibly. Keep in mind though, that if it were to reach those levels, we’ll be looking not at 330 million infections, but on the order of 1.34 Billion sufferers.

I guess the question is, how bad will it get before the bulk of the population decides it’s worth inconveniencing ourselves to starve this thing out? And will it be too late?

For a great historical read that is not primarily about the Spanish Flu, but does contain a few chapters when it sweeps through its character’s lives, check out The Given Day by Dennis Lehane (author of Mystic River and the excellent Shutter Island).

As I write this, I just found out that the building my sister works in (whom I will be visiting in Boston soon) has nine confirmed cases of swine flu. Awesome.

Please don’t hear me saying that the masses are not in fact unduly controlled by fear. This is a fact which the media both capitalizes on and perpetuates (as does our government, no doubt). I’m just concerned that we are all the villagers to the media and government’s boy who cried wolf too many times, and we may all end up bitten if we don’t pay heed this time.